Last week the pros were perfect and I still found a way to miss on campus. Tennessee lost by four and covered. The Jets lost by three in overtime and the hook saved me. Minnesota won a 9–3 rain fight in Chicago. I looked like I meant it.
Auburn was the miss. I waived the points and Florida won 44–39. That's on me. James Madison did not need the points. And in Oxford, Mike the Tiger woke up down 24–7, tied it, and still went home. Ole Miss 32–24. I had the points. The man at the other end of the bar laid three. He can explain himself.
This week I am not laying a pile of points in Death Valley, and I am not laying with Florida just because the number looks easy. Two of these have to win the game. The rest can have the points.
Last week
Pro: 3-0 · College: 2-1 · Overall: 5-1
Season to date: 11-6-1
Saturday — campus
The Swamp, Neyland, and a Saturday night in Ames. No tiger this week. He had his chance.
| Matchup | Spread Shenanigans | Hoagie Howl |
|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss @ Florida (FLA −3.5) |
Ole Miss +3.5 | That number looks like a gift, which is why I almost talked myself out of it. Florida is 3–0 and just won a track meet at Auburn. The Rebels are still the better team. Their lead back is out. I know. Take the points anyway. I am not laying with the Gators because the line looks easy the other way. |
| Texas @ Tennessee (TEX −4.5) |
Texas −4.5 | Road favorite in Knoxville is not a vacation. Four and a half in Neyland is not four and a half at home. I am laying it because Texas is the better team and I am done pretending every small number is a trap. If the checkerboards eat me, I will say so before the second beer. |
| Utah @ Iowa State (UTAH −8) |
Iowa State +8 | Ames is a rude place to be a visitor and I am getting a full touchdown. Jack Trice does not do favors. Take the Cyclones and the points. If Utah wins by nine I will clap like I meant to lay it. I did not. |
Sunday — NFL
Two moneylines and one home dog. I learned something at Jordan-Hare. I am doing the moneyline anyway.
| Matchup | Spread Shenanigans | Hoagie Howl |
|---|---|---|
| Vikings @ Buccaneers (MIN −1.5) |
Tampa Bay moneyline +105. Waive the points. | I almost typed this backwards and laid the points with an 0–2 team. I checked. Minnesota is the favorite. Tampa is home, getting a point and a half, and plus money to win the game. I want the win, not a backdoor. If they lose by a toe I was wrong. I will not hide behind the hook. |
| Texans @ Colts (HOU −2.5) |
Indianapolis moneyline +125. Waive the points. | Two teams at 0–2 and Houston is the road favorite because somebody had to be. I waived the points in Auburn and ate it. Lucas Oil is not Jordan-Hare and I am stubborn. Colts to win the game. Do not bring me a cover and a shrug. |
| Rams @ Broncos (LAR −2.5) |
Denver +2.5 | Sunday night, altitude, both of them 1–1, and the Rams want two and a half on the road. Take the points. If they hang forty I buy the table a round and shut up. I will not lay a small number into that stadium just because the logo is shiny. |
Six plays. Two of them have to win outright. Mike the Tiger can stay in Baton Rouge. If I stink, I stink. See you at the bar. Hoagie out.
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